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EUR/USD is struggling in a lower range and marked a double bottom. Will it lose the critical support line? Here is a quick update on fundamentals, technicals and community trends.

eur usd forecast september 9

EUR/USD supported twice (red line). Click to enlarge.

EUR/USD Technicals

  • Asian session:  Narrow range around 1.2722, and then another fall towards 1.2660.
  • Current Range is between 1.2605 to 1.2722.
  • Further levels: Below,  1.2610, 1.2460, 1.2330 and 1.2150.  Above   1.2770, 1.2840, 1.2930, 1.30, and 1.3110.
  • Uptrend channels broken: EUR/USD traded in a main uptrend channel and a secondary one. Both were broken earlier this week, and are becoming irrelevant.
  • Double bottom at 1.2660: This line also provided support last week. The double bottom seen in the past few days makes it a strong support line now.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

All times are GMT. Most important events emphasized.

  • 6:00: German Final CPI. Exp. 0.0%. Actual 0.0%. OK.
  • 8:00: ECB Monthly Bulletin. No big surprises.
  • 12:30 US Unemployment Claims. Exp. 470K.
  • 12:30: US Trade Balance. Exp. -47.4 billion.
  • 14:00: ECB member Axel Weber speaks. Yesterday he hurt the Euro. Will he do it again?

EUR/USD Sentiment

  • The reason for the big collapse earlier this week – European debt issues, with a strong focus on Ireland, made a “comeback”.
  • Market is drifting between “risk on” and “risk off” with a tendency to “risk on”. With “risk off”, good US figures boost the dollar and bad ones hurt it. When risk is on, bad US figures boost the dollar. In recent days, we’ve seen more normal behavior.
  • With the double bottom at 1.2660, it now became the stronghold on the downside.
  • News from Ireland and Spain regarding debt will impact the Euro.
  • Watch out for the US jobless claims. A rise above 500K could rock the markets.
  • Currensee Community: 53% are Short, 47% are long, down from 57:43 yesterday. These are 966 open positions in real accounts trading this pair at the moment.

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