While EUR/USD continues recovering above 1.09, hopes are not so high. The team at Credit Suisse sees lower ground ahead:
Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews:
EURUSD paused to catch its breath holding near the recent lows. This leaves the trend still directly lower to test price support next at 1.0826/22 ahead of the January low at 1.0711.
We would expect to see a bounce here, but beneath it can expose the lower end of the medium-term range at 1.0610/05. We would look for a fresh floor to be found here.
Resistance moves to 1.0912/16 initially, then 1.0952/63, with 1.1002/39 ideally capping to keep the trend directly lower.
Bigger picture, we continue to look for an eventual move to parity, and likely lower.
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Whilst we remain bearish EURUSD, it is worth noting though rises in EUR real rates can often be associated with a stronger EURUSD. If we do see 10yr EUR real rates establish a bearish reversal above 1.19%, there is a risk this may well dampen EURUSD weakness,arguing that support at 1.0610/05 should continue to hold for the time being.
CS maintains a short EUR/USD targeting a move to 1.0615.
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