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Rabobank analysts suggest that the Fed Chairman Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole suggests that he is leaning toward a September rate cut and did not lay out a reaction function regarding the Fed’s rate path beyond September.

Key Quotes

“Earlier today other FOMC participants showed that three weeks after the divisions at the July meeting there is still a lot of disagreement in the Committee.”

“While Powell’s speech was supposed to be the main event of the day, Jackson Hole was overshadowed by a further escalation in the US-China trade war. There is now a strong feedback loop between trade policy and monetary policy that will force the FOMC to make more insurance cuts in the coming months, most likely in September and October.”