TD Securities analysts point out that the March FOMC minutes revealed that “several” Fed officials see the next policy move in “either direction,” but “some” expected the next move to be higher and there was no explicit discussion of cuts.
Key Quotes
“Our base case still is for a high probability that the Fed remains on hold for this year and next. However, we think the market is too aggressive in pricing cuts for this year, and is underpricing the risk of a rate hike over the next 12 months.”
“Treasuries only briefly reacted to the minutes and may continue to grind in the 2.40-2.60% range for now. There was little discussion on reinvestments, but some participants suggested discussing the potential benefits and costs of tools that might reduce reserve demand or support interest rate control at future meetings (like the recently-discussed Fed repo facility).”
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