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In the latest Reuters poll of 110 economists, the respondents expressed their view on the US economy and Fed rate hike outlook for this year.

Key Findings:

“Median 25% chance of US recession in next 12 months.

40% in next two years (compares with 20, 40 in the poll taken prior in January).

US GDP to average 2.4% this year and 1.8% in 2020(2.5, 1.8% in the previous poll).

Federal Reserve to raise rates once this year (vs 2 hikes in January poll).”

Jim O’Sullivan, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, noted: “There is a lot of uncertainty and there are some good reasons to forecast a slowdown in 2019 as compared to in 2018.”

“It certainly does makes sense for the Fed to take a pause on policy to see how things play out, because it is not impossible for the economy to slow down in 2019 between weakening global growth, tighter financial conditions and fading fiscal stimulus.”