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Federal Reserve Rosengren says his baseline is for the pandemic to get worse this fall and winter, decreasing economic activity.

Key comments

Rosengren says he expects some parts of the country will lock down and consumers will pull back if infections rise.

Rosengren says weaker growth could extend the time it takes for fed to reach 2% inflation target, requiring rates to stay low for longer than anticipated.

Rosengren says original round of aid would have been fine if pandemic lasted three months but it’s lasting much longer and more targeted spending is needed.

Rosengren says lack of fiscal stimulus could result in more foreclosures and difficulties.

 Rosengren says we are very likely to face a credit crunch toward the end of this year if banks come under stress from commercial real estate loans.

More to come…