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Previewing next week’s FOMC meeting, “The Fed’s new set of projections is likely to reflect the more dovish statements since December,” Rabobank analysts argue.

Key quotes

“The FOMC has taken a pause, but several participants are still thinking of hiking later in the year. On balance, we may still see one hike for 2019 in the dot plot. For 2020, the chance of no more hikes in the dot plot is considerably larger.”

“The March meeting may give us more details about the balance sheet normalization that is likely to come to a halt in the second half of 2019.”

“We still expect the US economy to slide into recession in the summer of 2020 and the Fed to remain on hold for the remainder of 2019, before cutting rates in 2020.”