“With trade tensions likely to escalate, this Wednesday’s Fed meeting looks set to confirm market expectations – precautionary interest rate cuts are coming,” argue ING analysts.
Key quotes
“After hiking interest rates four times in 2018 the Federal Reserve has taken a more cautious approach to monetary policy in 2019.”
“Concerns about the economic implications of President Trump’s willingness to use trade tariffs in disputes with other countries means that downside risks to growth are building. On Wednesday, we expect the Fed to signal precautionary rate cuts are in the offing. Markets favour a 25bp rate cut in July with three additional rate cuts over the next twelve months.”
“We are a little more cautious seeing two 25bp moves in the second half of 2019, given the underlying strength of the US economy and our belief that President Trump will want a trade deal signed well ahead of the presidential elections next year.”
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