Research team at Nordea Markets – in the monthly Financial Forecast report – expects the Fed to cut interest rates in both October and December.
Especially the deteriorating macro momentum and the fear of tightening financial conditions too much should weigh in the Fed’s decision-making, while the inflation picture is more mixed. We do, however, see late-cycles warnings linked to the inflation outlook and the slightly de-anchored inflation expectations as clear factors speaking in favour of more easing ahead.
We believe the current cycle is comparable with the mid-90s, when after a cumulative 300 bp of rate hikes, the Fed cut rates by 75 bp and managed to fend off a recession. This time, the Fed has hiked by a cumulative 225 bp plus delivered additional tightening via the normalisation of the balance sheet. Acting pre-emptively with two more cuts in October and December could prevent a recession and extend the current expansion. We do, however, still expect the US economy to slow further from here, with the risk of a recession being non-negligible.