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A rather optimistic Head of the San Francisco Federal Reserve,  Mary Daly, doesn’t think that the US  is headed for a recession, arguing the US  labour market is strong and that  consumer spending is healthy.

Key comments:

  • Supported the rate cut in July at the FOMC, but not on concern about any impending downturn for the economy.
  • Labor market is at or near full employment.

FX implications:  

The market doesn’t buy it according to the yield curve. The dollar can remain in tender-hooks from and US yields are trapped below the steep descending resistance line.