Analysts at Nomura noted the up and coming FOMC and explained that at this point, it would be a significant surprise if the FOMC did not raise interest rates at the upcoming September meeting and explained that the press conference will be Powell’s first Q&A session since his July testimony before Congress.
Key Quotes:
“The press conference will be Powell’s first Q&A session since his July testimony before Congress. Since then, developments in emerging markets, trade policy and President Trump’s criticisms of rate hikes may engender some questions from reporters on these topics.
For emerging markets and external shocks, we expect Powell to largely adhere to previous comments where he emphasized that the FOMC will monitor domestic financial conditions, which have remained resilient, when considering the impact of external shocks. For trade policy, Powell will likely re-emphasize that it remains an area of uncertainty that could result in either a boost to the economy – lower tariffs as a result of negotiated trade deals – or a drag if tariffs are left in place over a long period of time.”
“Finally, regarding President Trump’s criticism of recent rate increases, Powell will likely diplomatically reiterate the importance of central bank independence, consistent with comments from other participants. Longer-term decisions Chair Powell may receive questions on longer-term topics that have surfaced in the minutes or in speeches recently. In our view, these topics are still under discussion on the Committee, indicating that any final decisions are a ways off. However, Powell may spend some time explaining the Committee’s thinking behind some of these issues.”
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