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Analysts at Deutsche Bank point out that the first day of August also brings with it the second of three central bank meetings this week and suggests that the conclusion of the  FOMC meeting is tonight  although of the three meetings, the Fed might be the least anticipated of the lot which isn’t something we would normally say.

Key Quotes

“No change in policy is expected and as a reminder this is a meeting that doesn’t have a press conference, nor a fresh summary of economic projections so the only focus really will be on cosmetic changes to the statement.”

Our US economists expect a fairly uneventful statement with the only real change perhaps being an acknowledgement of some recent softness in housing market data.  As a complement to June’s removal of forward guidance language, the statement could also include some language such as the phrase “for now” featured in Fed Chair Powell’s recent monetary policy testimony.”

“Our colleagues believe that including such verbiage would have the effect of including some uncertainty into the Fed’s gradual rate hike mantra. The team take the addition of such language as another way to de-emphasise forward guidance and reiterate that their actions are data dependent. Anyway, we’ll know more at 7pm BST tonight.”