Analysts at Rabobank explained that the FOMC projections imply 4 hikes in 2018 and 3 in 2019.
Key Quotes:
“However, if we look at the dot plot the fourth hike for 2018 is still hanging in the balance with only a minimal majority among all participants.”
“If the Phillips curve does not materialize before the end of the year that could erode the urgency of a fourth hike.”
“An escalation of the trade conflicts between the US and other countries would do the same and possibly more.”
“Therefore, for now, we stick to our call for three hikes this year (March, June, September).”
“As far as 2019 is concerned, a continuation of the Fed’s “gradual hiking path” is increasingly looking like a monetary policy mistake.”
Share
