The Barclays Research Team is out with a sneak peek at what to expect from Wednesday’s FOMC monetary policy decision due to be announced at 1800 GMT.
Key Quotes:
“Recent Fedspeak suggests that the Fed is likely to pare back its economic projections and the path of the hiking cycle at the upcoming meeting.
We believe the risks are skewed toward a dovish surprise.
Fed may mark growth down by a tenth or so.
Unemployment rate “¦ Fed may mark this up by a tenth or so.
Fed is likely to leave its inflation forecasts unchanged.
Should translate into a reassessment lower of the path of policy.
The median path of the funds rate may show only one hike over the forecast horizon, with the terminal rate at 2.5-2.75% and a neutral rate of 2.5%.
Fed also expected to outline the path of the balance sheet.”
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