Forex Daily Analysis – February 2nd 2009

Trading in the Forex market began with renewed strength of the USD dollar, with an especially noticeable gain against the NZD. Today, the  ISM Manufacturing PMI will be in the focus.

Only the Japanese Yen doesn’t budge. USD/JPY now at 89.60. Dollar Yen correlation seems strong this morning. Ok, let’s see what is else is due:

NZD/USD is currently trading at 0.5017, very close to the psychological line of 0.5. The new descent began after the Labor Cost Index was disappointing.

Also in the kiwi’s neighbor, the sun doesn’t shine too much. AUD/USD fell to 0.6304. Lots of data was released in Australia.

The quarterly HPI fell by 0.8%, somewhat better than expected. HIA New Home Sales fell by 1.7%, while the monthly  MI Inflation Gauge went up surprisingly by 0.8%. Also yearly  Commodity Prices went up, but this didn’t help the Aussie.

PMI data is due across Europe, beginning with the  SVME PMI in Switzerland. USD/CHF is now up to 1.1667, very high in the last weeks.

EUR/USD is touched the 1.27 support line before retracting upwards a little bit.  Final Manufacturing PMI, due at 9:30 GMT, should give it a new direction: 34.5 expected.

In Britain, the  Manufacturing PMI will be of interest, predicted to stand at 34.4. Under 50 is never good for the economy. GBP/USD now at 1.4308, retracting significantly from the 1.45 highs.

In the US, a few figures will be published at 13:30 GMT: monthly  Core PCE Price Index (predicted unchanged), monthly  Personal Spending (expected to fall 0.9%) and  Personal Income (-0.4).

The big event is the  ISM Manufacturing PMI which is predicted to stand at 32.4, even lower than last month’s 32.9. How low can the American economy go? Purchase Managers will indicate.

At the same time, 15:00 GMT,  ISM Manufacturing Prices will accompany the previous release. In addition,  Construction Spending  is also released, and is expected to fall.

Happy Forex Trading!