Forex Daily Outlook – April 16th 2010

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The last day of this week will be dominated by American housing figures and consumer sentiment. Will the dollar have another bad Friday? Or will it retrace some of its losses?

The Aussie doesn’t receive any figures today, but after advancing on Chinese figures, it must close above 0.9327 to confirm the bullish trend. This is big test. OK, let’s see the events:

In Switzerland, producer prices (PPI) are expected to rise by 0.2% after a drop of 0.3% last month. The Swiss Franc is advancing nicely this week.

In Europe, CPI is predicted to rise by 1.5% annually and confirm the initial result. Core CPI is lagging behind – it’s predicted to be revised to 0.9%, after the initial read of 0.8%.

Also in Europe, trade balance is published for two months, after a technical problem last time. The surplus is expected to dip from 7 billion to 3-5 billion in the two months that are reported now.

For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs’ latest analysis.

In Canada, Manufacturing Sales are predicted to rise by 1%, slower than last month’s 2.4%. The Canadian dollar is confirming its strength against the greenback this week.

For more on the loonie, read the Canadian dollar forecast.

In the US, housing figures start the day: Building Permits are predicted to tick down from 640K to 630K, erasing some of the leap last month. At the same time, housing starts will probably rise from 580K to 600K. If both figures go in the same direction, the markets will move. If they offset each other, choppy trading will be seen, but no clear moves will be made.

Later in the US, consumer sentiment is expected to edge up from 73.6 to 75 points, the best score in quite some time. Such a boost, near the end of the week, could make this week somewhat easier for the US dollar.

Also in the US, two speeches are due from FOMC members: Kevin Warsh and Thomas Hoenig will make public appearances, and could follow Bernanke’s cautious words.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

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About Author

Yohay Elam – Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I’ve accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I’ve earned the significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I’ve worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.

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