Forex Daily Outlook – April 1st 2010

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American Weekly Unemployment Claims and ISM Manufacturing PMI will be in the limelight on April’s fools day, among figures from all over the world. Let’s see what’s up for today.

The tension towards Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls continues to mount. The dollar, that had a rough beginning to the week, is correcting the losses. Will this trend continue?

Australia’s Trade Balance starts the day with an expected rise of its deficit from 1.18 to 1.37 billion. Commodity prices will probably show a smaller year-over-year drop this time. Yesterday’s Australian figures were quite disappointing. Retail Sales and Building Approvals hurt the Aussie.

Another figure that will impact the Australian dollar is the Chinese Manufacturing PMI, which is expected to rise. China is Australia’s main trade partner. For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD forecast.

In Japan, BOJ governor Masaaki Shirakawa will make a public appearance a short time after the Tankan Manufacturing Index is released and at the beginning of a new fiscal year. He might shake the weakening Yen.

One day after Germany posted a big drop in unemployment, retail sales are due to rise by 0.1%. Also in Europe – Final Manufacturing PMI will probably confirm the initial read of 56.3 points.

For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs’ latest analysis.

In Switzerland, the SVME PMI will probably rise from 57.4 to 58.9 points, pushing the Swissy higher.

In Britain, Manufacturing PMI is expected to edge up from 56.6 to 56.8 points. This figure always rocks the Pound. Also in Britain – the BOE Credit Conditions Survey can show better conditions.

Read more about the Pound in the GBP/USD forecast.

In the US, Challenger Job Cuts will give some general indication about the NFP. A bigger hint comes from the weekly Unemployment Clams which are predicted to edge down from 442K to 440K. This figure has proved correct in predicting the Non-Farm Payrolls.

Later in the US, ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to rise from 56.5 to 57 points, showing a continuing steady recovery. This release will shake the markets.

Also in the US: Construction Spending is expected to drop by 1.1%, ISM Manufacturing Prices are predicted to rise to 67.3 points and two FOMC members will speak: James Bullard and William Dudley.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

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About Author

Yohay Elam – Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I’ve accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I’ve earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I’ve worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.

3 Comments

  1. Hi i am wondering what was the cause of the sharp rise at 8pm on the 1st of April? (UTC+08:00). shouldnt the positive results of the ISM Manufacturing PMI cause a drop in Euro/USD?

  2. It seems as the tension towards the Non-Farm Payrolls and the dollar selling trend took over the ISM release.