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Most of the world is on holiday today – but not the US, that publishes the most important event in forex. On this thin volume, the Non-Farm Payrolls could save the dollar from a very bad week.

The updated estimates for the Non-Farm Payrolls stand on job gain of 185,000. This will erase many months of job losses. While the ADP Non-Farm Payrolls showed yet another month of disappointing job losses, economists expect the government’s figure to be totally different.

The main reason for this difference is the 2010 census that will take place in May. The government is hiring lots of people towards this event. It will culminate in over 600,000 jobs in May, but the impact will already be felt now.

As the dollar approaches parity with the Canadian dollar, loses a lot of ground to the Euro and the Pound and retreats against everybody except the yen, this release can boost it.

This will need to be supported with an improvement in the Unemployment Rate, that currently stands on 9.7% and is expected to remain unchanged. In previous releases, we ran into confusing reports from time to time – disappointing NFP with a drop in the unemployment rate, and vice versa. Also note the Average Hourly Earnings which are predicted to rise by 0.2%.

Further reading: I find my 5 notes for Non-Farm Payrolls trading always useful.

It’s Good Friday in the Christian world. Most countries are on holiday for 4 days. This means that the thin volume can cause strong moves. The Swiss National Bank already used the thin volume to make an intervention and pick up EUR/CHF from the floor.

So, April 2nd will probably one of the most unexpected days…

Happy forex trading!

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