Forex Daily Outlook – April 5th 2010

Most of the world is still enjoying the long Easter weekend, but there’s no holiday in the US and important data is due. Let’s see what’s on the menu:

The impact of Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls will still be felt. After many days of dollar weakness, the Non-Farm Payrolls showed a nice gain in jobs, after many months of losses. This was corrective for the dollar.

There are two important American releases at the same time – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is expected to follow the same figure for the manufacturing sector and rise from 53 to 54 points.

On the other hand, Pending Home Sales will probably continue dropping – last time’s big fall of 7.6% is expected to be followed with a mild drop of 0.6% this time.

The third event is a special meeting of the Federal Reserve to discuss the discount rate. Bernanke already stunned the markets with the raise of this special rate, less important than the Federal Funds Rate. It then happened after the close of the New York session, but still caused lots of action.

This time, it happens during the New York session, at 15:30 GMT, but when Europeans and others are still on vacation. He might raise this rate again, and boost the dollar. Raising this discount rate indicates a closer raise of the FFR.

Near the end of the day, New Zealand’s NZIER Business Confidence will be released. This quarterly indicator usually rocks the kiwi. In New Zealand it will already be Tuesday. If you’re trading NZD/USD – watch out…

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

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