Forex Daily Outlook – April 7th 2010
Daily Look

Forex Daily Outlook – April 7th 2010

Traders returned to the markets in a storm after the Easter holiday, and this day also provides lots of action: a rate decision in Japan, Ben Bernanke’s speech and many important figures from all over the world. Let’s see what’s awaiting us today.

A quick reminder of yesterday: the Aussie enjoyed another rate hike, the Euro dived on fresh Greek problems and USD/CAD parity was reached. Now, let’s see what will happen today.

Japan starts the day with the rate decision. The Japanese interest rate (Overnight Call Rate) is expected to remain unchanged at 0.1%. The focus will be on the forecasts for the future – seen in the Monetary Policy Statement and later echoed in the BOJ Press Conference. This will strongly move the Japanese yen which is making a nice recovery.

In Europe, we’ll get the Final Services PMI for starters: it’s expected to be confirmed at 55.5 points which is rather good. We’ll later get a confirmation on the GDP for Q4 of 2009 which will probably reiterate the 0.1% growth rate.

European PPI is expected to rise by 0.2%, less than last month’s 0.7%. A serious rise in inflation is necessary for a rate hike.

The more interesting event in Europe comes from Germany: factory orders are expected to drop by 0.8% after a leap of 4.3% last month. This might move the Euro higher.

For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs’ latest analysis.

Swiss retail sales are expected to rise at an annual rate of 3.8%, lower than last month’s 4.4% rise. This usually moves the Swissy, although the SNB interventions have their share as well.

In Britain, the Services PMI release has a tendency to rock the Pound. This indicator is expected to slide down from 58.4 to 58.1 points.

For more on the British Pound, check out the GBP/USD forecast.

The Canadian dollar, which matches the American one, expects two figures today: Building Permits are predicted to correct the 4.9% drop and rise by 2.1%. This volatile sector needs to stabilize in order to match other Canadian indicators.

Later in Canada, the Ivey PMI will probably jump from 51.9 to 55.1 points. This is an important indicator for the economy.

Also in Canada, BOC Deputy Governor John Murray will make a public appearance in Washington DC, and might rock USD/CAD.

For more on the loonie, read the Canadian dollar forecast.

In the US, Ben Bernanke will appear in a conference in Dallas, just one day after the FOMC meeting minutes were released. He usually rocks the markets. Also note speeches by his colleagues William Dudley and Thomas Hoenig.

On the background of rising oil prices, Crude Oil Inventories are expected to grow by 1 million barrels, less than last time’s rise. This usually affects USD/CAD more than other pairs.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

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Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.