A very busy day expects forex traders: rate decisions from Europe and Britain, Australian employment figures and the weekly jobless claims are the highlights. Let’s see what’s up.
The Canadian dollar doesn’t receive any figures today, but it will still draw attention. USD/CAD parity is here for the first time in 20 months, and it seems that it’s here to stay. OK, let’s start the review:
Australia provides a strong start to the day with the employment figures. Employment Change is predicted to show a gain of 20,200 jobs while the Unemployment Rate will probably remain unchanged at 5.3%. This might push the Aussie towards important 0.9327 resistance line.
For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD forecast.
A day after the rate decision, Japan’s BOJ Monthly Report is released and can shake the yen. This will give another view on the economy. Also note the Economy Watchers Sentiment.
In Switzerland, the Unemployment Rate is predicted to remain unchanged at 4.1%.
British Manufacturing Production will probably rise by 0.7% after dropping by 0.9% last month. This will be a prelude to the main event.
The last British rate decision before the elections isn’t expected to bring any changes: the Official Bank Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 0.5%. Also the Quantitative Easing program will probably not receive new funds, and will remain on 200 billion pounds.
It will be interesting to see if Mervyn King will release any negative statements about the economy in the MPC Rate Statement – this might shake the volatile pound.
There’s still one more British figure – the NIESR GDP Estimate which is usually an accurate and fresh indicator for the government’s figure. It showed a growth rate of 0.3% for the 3 months that ended in February, and will now show the first quarter in full.
For more on the Pound, read the GBP/USD forecast.
In Europe, two figures are due before the rate decision: Retail Sales, which fell by 0.3% last month, will probably remain unchanged this time. In Germany, that Industrial Production is predicted to rise by 0.7%. Factory Orders were better than expected, so we can see a positive surprise here as well.
Jean-Claude Trichet isn’t expected to move the European Minimum Bid Rate from 1%. With a stagnant economy, there’s no reason for a move. It will be interesting to hear his comments about Greece and other debt laden countries in the ECB Press Conference.
In the US, Unemployment Claims are expected to continue dropping, indicating a real improvement in the economy. A drop from 439K to 433K is expected.
A day after Ben Bernanke’s speech, we have a few more speeches from FOMC members: Elizabeth Duke, Daniel Tarullo and Donald Kohn will all make public appearances.
That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!
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