Forex Daily Outlook – August 13th 2009

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After yesterday busy day, and especially the FOMC Statement, today is also very busy. German Prelim GDP, Retail Sales in the US and New Zealand and the weekly jobless claims in America, for the first time after the drop in the unemployment rate. Let’s see what’s up for today:

Australia starts the day with an inflation figure, something that influences its interest rate – MI Inflation Expectations. On the other side of the day, close to midnight, an important testimony is due by Glenn Stevens, the RBA Governor.

For more on the Australian Dollar, check out the AUD/USD Outlook.

Germany is the first Euro-zone country to publish the Prelim GDP for the second quarter. Europe’s largest economy is expected to post a contraction of 0.2%, much better than the fall of 3.8% that was recorded in the first quarter. This is a major release for EUR/USD.

45 minutes later, Europe’s second largest economy, France, will also post its Prelim GDP. It’s expected to fall by 0.3%, less than 1.2% in the first quarter. The Flash GDP for all of Europe is published more than two hours later, and is predicted to show a contraction of 0.5 (2.5% last time).

When will growth return to Europe? Maybe we’ll hear an updated forecast in the ECB Monthly Bulletin.

More on the Euro – EUR/USD Outlook.

In the US, Retail Sales are expected to show a neat rise of 0.9%. Also the Core Retail Sales are important for the greenback – they’re expected to post a modest rise of 0.2%.

After last week’s stunning Non-Farm Payrolls, the weekly Unemployment Claims are expected to get better this week, dropping from 550K to 545K.

Also in the US, Import Prices are expected to drop by 0.3% and also Business Inventories are expected to follow with a fall of 0.9%.

Retail Sales are also published in New Zealand. Contrary to the US, kiwi Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales are expected to drop (0.3% and 0.6%) after rising last month.

Just before midnight, Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes are released in Japan. At the same time, the Tertiary Industry Activity is expected to show a fall of 0.3%. Will the Dollar Yen correlation continue?

Happy forex trading!

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Yohay Elam – Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I’ve accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I’ve earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I’ve worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.

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