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Forex Daily Outlook – August 5th 2009

The market finally “exploded” this week, with the dollar losing ground across the board. Today features the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, important releases from Britain and more. Let’s see what’s up. Will the greenback continue to retreat?

After the interest rate stayed unchanged, AUD/USD will move today by the Trade Balance. It’s expected to show a deepening deficit of 790 million. A better result won’t be a big surprise. For more on the Aussie, see the AUD/USD Outlook.

British Manufacturing Production is predicted to rise by 0.7% after falling by 0.5% last time. At the same time, Services PMI is also predicted to be good, rising from 51.6 to 51.9. The Pound will sure shake at 8:30 GMT.

For more on GBP/USD, check out the British Pound Outlook.

European Retail Sales are expected to rise by 0.3% after falling by 0.4%. Will it give more fuel to EUR/USD rally?

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, or the “little NFP” is expected to show a drop of 335K jobs, better than last month’s 473K. This figure doesn’t always serve as a good prediction to the Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday, but it sure has influence on currency trading.

Later in the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is expected to take one step further up and rise from 47 to 48.1 points, still less than the critical 50 mark. Factory Orders is expected to drop this time by 0.5%. It’s published at the same time as the PMI, at 14:00 GMT.

Crude  Oil Inventories will be of significance after the price of oil too the $70 mark. Expectations are fro a rise of 1.2M barrels.

Near the end of the day, employment data from New Zealand will be published. Employment Change is expected to drop by 0.6% after it fell by 1.1% last time. Unemployment Rate is predicted to leap from 5% to 5.6%. Such bad figures could slow the kiwi’s rally.

For more on the New Zealand dollar, read the NZD/USD Outlook.

That’s it. Happy forex trading!

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.