Forex Daily Outlook – August 7th 2009

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The last day of trading this week ends with a bang. Non-Farm Payrolls, king of forex is due today. There more important figures. Let’s see what’s up:

As usual, the first release for today is the RBA Monetary Policy Statement. Glenn Stevens and co. will share their opinions about the current state of the economy, and might hint about future policy.

For more on the Aussie, check out the AUD/USD Outlook.

Swiss Unemployment Rate is expected to edge up from 3.8% to 3.9%. Only a big surprise will shake USD/CHF.

In Europe, Trade Balance is expected from Germany and France. While the surplus is expected to grow in Germany, the deficit in France is predicted to deepen. Later in Europe, German Industrial Production is expected to rise by 0.6% after jumping by 3.7% last month.

In Britain, prices are slowing down as well. PPI Input is expected to fall by 0.8%, after rising by 1.5% last month.

For more on the British Pound, check out the GBP/USD Outlook.

Canadian employment figures will be published an hour and a half before the American NFP. Employment Change is predicted to show a loss of 20,000 jobs, a bigger drop than last month’s 7,400 jobs. The Unemployment Rate is predicted to step up from 8.6% to 8.8%.

Near the end of the day, Canadian Ivey PMI is predicted to drop from 58.2 to 55.3. For more on the loonie, read the Canadian Dollar Outlook.

The king of forex, Non-Farm Payrolls, is predicted to show a loss of 333K jobs. Last month, this figure showed a loss of 467K jobs, much worse than expected. In the month before, it was much better than expected. So, NFP could be totally different…

The accompanying figure, Unemployment Rate, is expected to to edge up to 9.6%, one step closer to 10% that President Barack Obama promised. After surprising last month with a modest rise, also this month could be positive.

Average Hourly Earnings is also released together with NFP, and it’s predicted to rise by 0.1% after remaining unchanged last month.

That’s it. Happy forex trading!

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Yohay Elam – Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I’ve accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I’ve earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I’ve worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.

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