For more on the Australian dollar, read the AUD/USD forecast
Get ready for one of the busiest days: rate decisions in Britain and Switzerland, employment numbers in the US and Australia, and much more. Here goes:
Australia’s MI Inflation Expectations start the day with an expected steady rise. This is only a warm up to the bigger release: the employment numbers. Australia’s Employment Change is predicted to rise by 5.3K, much less than last month’s 24.5K. Looking at previous releases, this number can sure be better.
The Australian Unemployment Rate is expected to rise to 5.9%, but also here, it never made it above 5.8%, contrary to economists’ expectations. After these figures are released, RBA Assistant Governor Guy Debelle will make a public appearance and might shake the Aussie as well.
In Europe, French Industrial Production is predicted to rise by 0.6%, after falling last month. German Industrial Production disappointed earlier this week. Later in Europe, the ECB Monthly Bulletin will give a broad look at the economy, now that Greece is in trouble. Casey Stubbs talked about the downside risk for the Euro already on Sunday.
For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast.
In Switzerland, the quarterly rate decision isn’t expected to bring a rate hike. The Libor Rate is predicted to remain at 0.25%. Traders’ focus will be on the SNB Monetary Policy Assessment and the accompanying SNB Press Conference.
In March, the SNB intervened in the markets and sent the Swissy up – only temporarily. With the weakening Euro, the SNB might intervene again to hold EUR/CHF above the support line that it created: 1.50. Will they intervene again?
The rate decision in Britain is also expected to be interesting, very interesting. The troubled British economy isn’t expected to receive a rate hike, and the Official Bank Rate will probably stay at 0.5%.
As in previous months, the focus will be on the QE program, and the expansion of it. The Quantitative Easing program, also known as Asset Purchase Facility, is expected to remain unchanged at 200 billion Pounds, after it was enlarged at a smaller-than-expected scale last month.
More information about the British economy will be released in the MPC Rate Statement. I find hope for the British economy in the NIESR GDP estimate, which was positive for a change.
Moving to North America, we have a double-feature Trade Balance release. Canada’s Trade Balance is expected to show a smaller deficit – only 0.6 billion. On the other side of the border, the American deficit is predicted to rise to 37 billion.
Less than a week after the excellent Non-Farm Payrolls, weekly Unemployment Claims are expected to show a renewed rise in claims – 465K. This could be better.
Near the end of the day, the Federal Budget Balance will be released, and it’s expected to show a smaller deficit: “only” 136 billion.
That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!
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