Forex Daily Outlook – December 8th 2009

No significant American indicators are predicted today, but elsewhere, the calendar is busy: a rate decision in Canada, Final GDP in Japan, and the unofficial but accurate GDP estimate in Britain. Let’s see what’s up for today:

Image credit: Vlastula on Flickr

British BRC Retail Sales Monitor start the day. After a rise of 3.8% last time, a more modest advance is expected. Later in Britain, Manufacturing Production is expected to rise by 0.5%, less than last time’s rise of 1.7%.

British CBI Industrial Order Expectations are predicted to edge up to -42, still in the negative zone. The more interesting event in my opinion is the NIESR GDP estimate. This institute foresaw the ongoing recession in Britain, contrary to many economists’ estimations.

For more on the Pound, read the GBP/USD forecast.

In Australia, Current Account is expected to show a bigger deficit this time, of 16.7 billion. Also note the NAB Business Confidence, which has reached 16 points last month, expressing optimism.

Glenn Stevens, the head of Australia’s central bank, will make a public appearance, and may say something about the next moves regarding interest rates, after raising the rates three times in a row.

On the other side of the day, the Westpac Consumer Sentiment is released and provides a look from the consumer side. For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD forecast.

In Europe, a day after German Factory Orders disappointed by falling by 2.1%,  the continent’s largest economy publishes its Industrial Production, which is predicted to rise by 1.1%, following a 2.7% rise last month.

For more on the Euro, read the EUR USD Forecast.

In Canada, Housing Starts are predicted to edge up to 158K, 1000 more houses than last month. This is a quick warm up the rate decision.

Mark Carney’s Bank of Canada is expected to leave the Overnight Rate unchanged at 0.25%. The wording of the BOC Rate Statement will be critical. Will the BOC repeat the statement about not moving the rates till the end of Q2 2010? Last month’s repeat was disappointing, and sent the loonie down.

For more on USD/CAD, read the Canadian dollar forecast.

And just before the end of the day, Final GDP will be published in Japan. The initial read of a 1.2% growth rate is expected to be revised downwards to 0.8%, something that will help USD/JPY ride north.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!