Forex Daily Outlook – January 20th 2010

Another busy day is awaiting us: American Building Permits and British employment numbers are the highlights. Let’s see what’s up for today.

Note the journey down of EUR/GBP, which moves by strong British figures and weak European ones.

German PPI starts the day with an expected rise of 0.2%. Producer prices aren’t rising like consumer prices. A strong rise is needed to help the Euro that is currently struggling on all fronts.

For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast.

British figures

British employment has turned around last month with a drop in the number of unemployed people. This number, the Claimant Count Change is expected to show another drop, this time of 3,300 people.

The accompanying figure relates to November, but is still important: the Unemployment Rate. Currently at 7.9%, it’s predicted to edge up to 8%. Looking at past releases, the rate will probably fall.

British MPC Meeting Minutes will reveal the internal talks in the last rate decision. There was no change in the rate nor in the QE program. Hints about future policy could be seen there.

Later in the day, External BOE MPC Member Adam Posen will speak. He might relate to inflation which is lifting its head and pushing the Pound higher.

For more on GBP/USD, read the British Pound forecast.

Moving to Canada, CPI is predicted to drop by 0.1% after rising nicely last month. Also Core CPI is predicted to show a drop in prices – 0.2%. The Canadian dollar suffered from the rate decision yesterday, that provided no change in policy.

Also note Canadian Manufacturing Sales which are predicted to rise once again, this time by 1.6%.  For more USD/CAD technicals, read the Canadian dollar forecast.

In the US, two housing sector figures are due: Building Permits are expected to remain unchanged at 590K and Housing Starts are predicted to edge up from 570K to 580K. A jump in one of these figures will boost the dollar.

Producer prices aren’t expected to move. Both PPI and Core PPI will probably rise by 0.1% after jumping last month.

In New Zealand, Retail Sales are expected to rise by 0.6%, double last month’s 0.3% rise. Kiwi traders, also note the Core Retail Sales which are expected to rise by 0.3%.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!