Forex Daily Outlook – January 26th 2010
Daily Look

Forex Daily Outlook – January 26th 2010

After a slow day, we have a very busy day today, starting with a rate decision in Japan. Then, we’ll get to know if Britain exited the recession, an important European survey will shake EUR/USD and American consumer confidence will move the dollar. Let’s see what’s up today:

Apart from the regular economic releases, a second term for Ben Bernanke will probably be approved in Washington, though there are doubts about this. An approval will help the dollar and the stock markets.

The day starts strongly with a rate decision in Japan. The BOJ isn’t expected to move the interest rate from 0.1%, but might expand the emergency measures it makes to push the economy higher. The exact wording of the Monetary Policy Statement and the following press conference will move the Yen.

In Switzerland, the UBS Consumption Indicator is expected to edge up from the current score of 1.28.

In Europe, German Import Prices are predicted to rise by 0.1% after a 0.4% rise last month.French Consumer Spending is predicted to rise by 0.8% after disappointing with a squeeze last month. European Current Account is expected to show a smaller deficit this time: 2.8 billion instead of 4.6 billion last month.

The most important release in Europe is the German Ifo Business Climate. This major survey has edged up month after month, and is expected to continue this trend by ticking up from 94.7 to 95.2 points.

For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs’ recent EUR/USD analysis.

In Britain, there are high hopes that the recession will finally end. The preliminary release of GDP for Q4 is expected to be positive with a growth rate of 0.4%. The unofficial NIESR GDP estimate showed a growth rate of 0.3%.

Just after the GDP release, BOE governor Mervyn King will make a public appearance and can sure shake the Pound. Last week he managed to keep the Pound down…

Also in Britain, BBA Mortgage Approvals are expected to edge up to 45.3K, but this will be heavily overshadowed by the other events. For more on GBP/USD, read the British Pound forecast.

In the US, S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI is predicted to show a smaller year-over-year drop in house prices. The CB Consumer Confidence will probably shake the dollar. It’s predicted to rise from 52.9 to 53.6 points. It recovered last month.

Before the end of the day, Japanese Trade Balance surplus is predicted to rise.  Australia’s MI Leading Index which is also expected to rise. For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD forecast.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

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Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.