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Forex Daily Outlook – January 7th 2010

The focus shifts to Britain today that receives a rate decision. There are lots of other important events worldwide. Let’s see what’s up today:

Anticipation towards the Non-Farm Payrolls prevents significant breakouts. The markets are tense towards the release on Friday.

Australia starts the day with two major releases: Retail Sales are predicted to rise by 0.4% after a similar rise last month. At the same time, the deficit in the Trade Balance is expected to drop from 2.38 to 1.8 billion.

Both Australian figures are expected to push the Aussie even higher, continuing the trend of a strong week. For technical levels, check out the AUD/USD forecast.

For those of you trading the Swissy, CPI is expected to move the pair. It’s predicted to rise by 0.1% this time.

European Retail Sales are predicted to remain unchanged. This prediction is based on German and French numbers which were already released, but surprises can always happen.

Later in Europe, Consumer Confidence is expected to tick up to -16, still in the negative zone. German Factory Orders will probably be on the rise again, after a disappointing drop last month.

For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast. Also check out Casey Stubbs’ updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

The Bank of England is expected to leave the interest rate unchanged. As usual, Mervyn King’s central bank is expected to leave the Official Bank Rate at the historic low of 0.5%. Also the Quantitative Easing program, also known as the    Asset Purchase Facility, isn’t expected to be enlarged from the current scale of 200 billion.

The focus on this decision will be the MPC Rate Statement, as it may lay out the policy for 2010, a year in which Brits go to the polls. For more on GBP/USD, read the British Pound forecast.

Weekly Unemployment Claims in the US have surprised in recent weeks, improving to a 17-month low last week. This is the last hint towards the Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday. Current expectations are for a rise in jobless claims: from 432,000 to 449,000.

In Canada, also awaiting employment numbers, Ivey PMI is expected to rock the USD/CAD. This important indicator is predicted to drop this time: from 55.9 to 52.2 points.

Read more on USD/CAD in the Canadian dollar forecast.

That’s it for a busy Thursday. Happy forex trading!

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Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.