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US Retail Sales, US Federal Open Market Committee Meeting Minutes and Euro-zone Industrial Production highlight today’s activities. Here is an outlook  for the major  market moving events.

In the US, Retail Sales, an important gauge of consumer spending measuring the total receipts at retail establishments expected a modest decline of -0.1% due to last week’s better-than-expected sales at some major U.S. retailers. This report could also show signs of improvement from the -1.2% drop in May.

More in the US, Federal Open Market Committee Meeting Minutes a detailed record of the Fed’s last monetary policy meeting that may provide an outlook on the economy, inflation and the Fed’s future monetary policy.  The minutes would likely confirm the Fed’s cautiously optimistic outlook on the economy and the monetary policy makers.

Later in the US, Import Prices, Following the 0.6% decrease in May, a further smaller 0.1% drop is expected. Subdued inflation will give the Federal Reserve room to keep its benchmark interest rate near zero for an “extended period.”

Finally in the US, Business inventory growth fell to 0.4% in April reverting a 3-month trend of increasing growth which ended in a 0.7% monthly spike in March. A similar growth is forecasted now. Crude oil inventories fell 2 million barrels in the week ending June 25, following a rise of 2 million barrels the preceding week a further decrease is expected.

For more on USD/CAD, read the  Canadian dollar forecast.

In Europe, Euro-zone Industrial Production, the main gauge of industrial activity measuring the output of factories, mines and utilities is forecasted to rise by 1.2% from 0.8% in May. The manufacturing sector has been the leading light of the Euro-zone economy so far in 2010, benefiting from improved domestic and, especially, export demand as well as inventory rebuilding.
More in Europe, Consumer Price Index expected to remain flat at 1.4% y/y while the Core CPI increases slightly by 0.9% m/m from 0.8% in May.

For more on the Euro, read the  EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs’  latest analysis.

In Great Britain, U.K. Jobless Claims and Unemployment Rate, the main gauges of employment trends and labor market conditions expected lesser 20,200 jobless claims in June than the 30,900 claims in May and may bring a positive improvement in the U.K. jobs market. The unemployment rate remains unchanged at 7.9%.
More in Great Britain, Average Earnings Index is an indicator of how fast earnings are growing in Great Britain. A further 3.1% rise is expected in May following the 4.2% climb in April exemplifying an overall positive growth climate in the UK market.

Read more about the Pound in the  GBP/USD forecast.

In Australia, RBA Governor Glenn Stevens delivers a speech titled “Some Long-Run Effects of the Financial Crisis” at the Anika Foundation Luncheon, in Sydney. His comments may determine whether inflation rates will increase over the next year.

More in Australia, Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index fell by 5.7% in June from 108.0 in May to 101.9 in June. Another decrease is anticipated if the Reserve Bank will continue to raise rates.

For more on the Aussie, read the  AUD/USD forecast.

In New Zealand, The BNZ-Business NZ Performance of Manufacturing Index provides an early indicator of activity levels, with May’s 54.5 index showing expansion, even though it is down 4.1 points from April. Manufacturing activity is anticipated to continue its growth and stay above the 50 point line.
That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

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