Forex Daily Outlook – July 7 2011

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Unemployment Claims in the US and Minimum Bid Rate in the UK are the main highlight on today’s outlook. Let’s see what awaits us today.

In the US, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change indicating the number of people employed in the private sector gained only 38,000 in May vs. 177,000 in the previous month. This reading is well below the 177,000 gain expected. A small rise of 67,000 is expected now.

Later in the US, Unemployment Claims continued to disappoint last week with higher than expected unemployment claims reaching 428,000 following 427,000 in the week before. A drop to 421,000 is predicted.

Finally in the US, Crude Oil Inventories dropped 4.4M in the previous week following 1.7M decrease in the week before. A smaller drop of 2.4M is forecasted.

In Canada, Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) surveys 175 manufacturers concerning their monthly purchases indicating economic growth increased to 69.1 in May from 57.7 in the prior month and above the 59.1 predicted signifying a growth trend in the Canadian market.

Finally in Canada, New Housing Price Index indicating the selling price of new houses increased by 0.3% in April after a flat reading in the previous month and below expectations of 0.6% increase.

For more on USD/CAD, read the Canadian dollar forecast.

In Europe, Minimum Bid Rate was maintained at 1.25% in June as was done on the previous months however a rate hike to 1.50% is expected now.

More in Europe, ECB Press Conference is scheduled after the rate decision emphasizing the reasons for the decision. Will be important in light of the expected rate hike.

Finally in Europe, German Industrial Production a major indicator of industrial conditions dropped unexpectedly by 0.6% in April from 1.7% gain in the previous month. A strong gain of 0.7% is expected now.

For more on the Euro, read the Euro to dollar forecast.

In Great Britain, Manufacturing Production measures inflation among manufacturers’ output decreased by 1.5% in April following 0.2% gain in the prior month. Analysts expected a flat reading however a 1.1% increase is forecasted now.

More in Great Britain, Asset Purchase Facility BOE asset purchase program was maintained at 200B in June as in former months and is not expected to change in the near future.

Later in Great Britain, Official Bank Rate was also maintained in June with no foreseen changes in the next months.

Finally in Britain, NIESR GDP Estimate a quarterly measure of the total value of goods and services produced within the UK in the previous 3 months increased by 0.4% in May from 0.1% in the previous month. The same increase is expected now.

Read more about the Pound in the GBP/USD forecast.

In Switzerland, CPI measuring inflation rate was flat in May in line with predictions following 0.1% gain in the previous month. A decrease of 0.1% is predicted now.

Read more about the Swiss franc in the USD/CHF forecast.

In Australia, Employment data, The Australian economy added 7,800 new jobs in May less than the 25,600 predicted but well above the 29,400 decrease experienced in the previous month. A gain of 15,200 jobs is expected now. Meantime unemployment rate was maintained at 4.9% and is unlikely to change now.

For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD forecast.

For more events later in the week, check out the Live Forex Calendar

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About Author

Anat Dror – Senior Writer

I conceptualize, design and create multi-lingual websites. Apart from the technical work, my projects usually consist of writing content for these sites in English, French and Hebrew.

In the past, I have built, managed and marketed an e-learning center for language studies, including moderating a live community of students.

I’ve also worked as a community organizer

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