Forex Daily Outlook – June 10th 2009

After two slow days, the economic calendar is fully packed today: Trade Balance in Britain, Canada and the US, an interest rate decision in New Zealand and GDP in Japan are the highlights. And there’s lots more. Let’s see what’s on the menu…

Australian Home Loans start the day. After rising by 4.9%, they are expected to rise by only 1.6%. This is an important figure for the Aussie.

In Europe, French Industrial Production is expected to decline by 0.3%. It could be worse. The German figure disappointed yesterday and fell by 1.9%.

Also in Europe,  Deutsche Bundesbank President Axel Weber,  a senior member of the ECB, will speak. This will also impact EUR/USD.

For more on the Euro:  EUR/USD – Will it Get on its Feet Again?

In Britain,  Manufacturing Production is expected to drop slightly, by 0.1%, just like last month. At the same time,  Trade Balance will be released, and is expected to show a deficit of 6.4 billion. At 8:30 GMT, the Pound will shake.

At 12:30 GMT, both American and Canadian Trade Balance figures will be published. In the US, a deficit of 28.8 is expected, while a surplus of 0.9 billion is predicted in Canada. USD/CAD will move on this double-feature event.

Also in Canada, New Home Price Index (NHPI) will be published at the same time. It’s expected to fall by 0.3%.

For a special coverage on the loonie, check out:   Canadian Dollar Outlook

Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker will be talking about the economy. This might move the greenback.

At 18:00 GMT, two more American indicators will be published. The  Beige Book gives a good overview of the economy.  Federal Budget Balance is expected to show a deepening deficit, this time of 178 billion. The last figure might hurt the dollar.

At 21:00 GMT, when volume isn’t high, a new interest rate will be released in New Zealand. The consensus is that the  Official Cash Rate will stay unchanged, at 2.5%.

We can hear more about the situation in New Zealand by reading the  RBNZ Rate Statement. And later on, the  RBNZ Press Conference will provide more information. Don’t expect Quantitative Easing in New Zealand…

And just before you think it’s over, Japanese Final GDP for the first quarter will be released. It’s expected to remain at the original figure, and show a contraction of 4%.

That’s it. Happy forex trading!