Forex Daily Outlook – June 16th 2009
Daily Look

Forex Daily Outlook – June 16th 2009

Japanese rate statement, British and European CPI releases and American Building Permits are the highlights of a very busy day. Will the dollar continue to enjoy the Russian wind? These indicators will shake all the currencies…

Japan supplies a strong start to the day with an interest rate decision. Japanese  Overnight Call Rate is expected to remain at rock bottom – 0.1%. The focus turns to the  Monetary Policy Statement that might hint about buying bonds, and to the following  BOJ Press Conference.

In Australia,  Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes is released, and will show what RBA members think about the strong Australian economy. In my opinion, AUD/USD should be  a major currency.

In Switzerland, economists fear the release of the quarterly Industrial Production. They expect that the first quarter finished badly, with a fall of 11.7%. This will move the USD/CHF.

Read more about the critical week for the Swissy.

In Germany,  ZEW Economic Sentiment is expected to show a neat rise, from 31.1 to 35.1. Though still low, such a result could boost the Euro. The all-European figure is also expected to rise – from 28.5 to 34.1. The German figure is more precise.

Another important figure is the all-European CPI which is expected to stay unchanged. Core CPI is expected to help – estimations are for a fall from 1.8% to 1.6%.

In Britain, CPI is expected to show a rise of 1.9% (annually adjusted). Last month, CPI stood on 2.3%. Core CPI is expected to rise by 1.5%, just like last month.RPI (Retail Price Index) will also be interesting to watch. It’s predicted to fall again, this time by 1.5%. Is Britain joining the deflation club?

For more on the Pound, check out the GBP/USD outlook.

In Canada, the loonie might recover if quarterly  Labor Productivity falls again. It’s expected to fall by 0.2%. For more on the Canadian dollar, check out the USD/CAD outlook.

The highlight of today is American Building Permits. American housing is off the bottom, but didn’t get too far from it…Building Permits are predicted to remain at 500K. Another housing figure is Housing Starts. Here, economists expected a rise from 460K to 480K.

Also the US receives inflation (or deflation) figures today. PPI is expected to rise by 0.6%, after rising by 0.3%. Core PPI is predicted to rise by 0.1%. I think that the rise in commodity prices will also impact PPI, sooner than later, and that a rise in the interest rate isn’t so far.

Also in the US,  Capacity Utilization Rate is expected to print 68.5%, lower than last time. Industrial Production is expected to fall by  0.7%, after falling by 0.5% last time.

Think it’s over? Well, there still are verbal events…  Deutsche Bundesbank President Axel Weber will speak about financial stability, and  Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh will speak about economic policy. These speeches might shake the EUR/USD.

That’s it. Happy forex trading!

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.