Forex Daily Outlook – June 3 2010

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks in Chicago, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren delivers a speech in Springfield and Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas President Thomas Hoenig speaks in Bartlesville, Unemployment Claims and the major event of the day US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. A day full of activities awaits us. Let’s see what’s on the menu today:

In the US, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change is expecting a welcome increase of 56,000 from April to May exceeding April’s score by 24,000. This great result is also a good forecast for tomorrow’s big event  Non-Farm Payrolls since the ADP release goes in tandem with the  official NFP bearing good news for the US dollar.

Later in the US, Unemployment Claims forecast this week also support the ADP release by dropping from 460K to 451K and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI shows further improvement in the US market expected to go up from 55.4 to 55.9. Revised Nonfarm Productivity released quarterly is expected a slight drop of 0.1% from 3.6% in the previous quarter. Factory orders are also foreseen a decrease of 0.2% compared to May.

More in the US, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks on the financial needs of small businesses at the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank, in Detroit, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren delivers a speech titled “The Federal Reserve’s Response to the Financial Crisis” at the New England Financial Executives Conference, in Springfield and Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas President Thomas Hoenig speaks at the Chamber of Commerce’s Federal Reserve forum, in Bartlesville. These may affect interest rates and give insight on future monetary policy.

Finally in the US, Crude Oil Inventories are expected to plunge -0.5B following the Deepwater Horizon  oil  spill on April 21 affecting oil and share prices.

For more on USD/CAD, read the  Canadian dollar forecast.

In Europe, Retail Sales  are expected to rise from 0.0% to 0.1% which is the first positive change since July 2009 hopefully, a signal of recovery in the EU market.

For more on the Euro, read the  EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs’  latest analysis.

In Great Britain, Halifax House Price Index is expected to rise by 0.3% compared to a drop of -0.1% in May giving a boost to the housing industry while Nationwide HPI is expected to decrease from 1.0% to 0.5% with accordance to Economists  expectations.

Later in Great Britain, Services PMI is expected to rise 55.6 points after the drop of 55.3 in May where British service sector activity unexpectedly slowed, after a volcanic ash cloud from Iceland that closed UK airspace hampered transport businesses, and uncertainty about the election dented demand and confidence.

Read more about the Pound in the  GBP/USD forecast.

In Australia, Australia is expected to dramatically reduce its Trade deficit by 1.3B to reach -0.77B pointing to economic growth and market activity.

For more on the Aussie, read the  AUD/USD forecast.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

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