Forex Daily Outlook – June 30 2010

American ADP Non-Farm Payrolls, Canada’s GDP, British Final GDP, Swiss KOF Economic Barometer and Japan’s Tankan Manufacturing Index make the current headlines. Let’s review today’s activities.

In the US, American ADP Non-Farm Payrolls: The report for the private sector is sometimes called the “mini Non-Farm Payrolls”. In many months, it didn’t predict the direction of the NFP, but this changed last month, as the weak growth in the private sector was reflected in the NFP 2 days later. Three months of job gains will probably be followed by a fourth one. Expectations stand on a gain of 58K jobs.

More in the US, Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index is foreseen another small drop following the unexpected fall in May gaining 59.2 points.

Finally in the US, Crude Oil Inventories expected to add to the surplus  inventories following last week’s surge of 2.0 M.

In Canada, Canadian GDP for the month of March, that finished Q1, was  excellent  – 0.6%. This exceeded expectations and completed an annual growth rate of 6.1% in Q1. A modest rise of 0.2% is expected this time.

For more on USD/CAD, read the  Canadian dollar forecast.

In Europe, Unemployment in Europe’s largest economy is forecasted to contract another 23K in June following the 45K drop during the previous month An ongoing improvement in the German labor market is likely to stoke an enhanced outlook for future growth, and the data could spur a bullish reaction in the single-currency as European policy makers expect the recovery to gather pace in the second-quarter.

More in Europe, Following the market muted reaction to the Eurozone CPI flash estimate which came in at 1.6% a small dip to 1.5% is anticipated.

Finally in Europe, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet holds a press conference at the High-level Eurosystem Seminar with Central Banks and Monetary Agencies of the Gulf Cooperation Council, in Rome this may affect interest rates.

For more on the Euro, read the  EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs’  latest analysis.

In Great Britain, Nationwide HPI is expected a small drop to 0.3% following April’s predicted rise. The BBC quoted Nationwide’s chief economist, Martin Gahbauer, as saying: “The current supply-demand balance on the market is still consistent with relatively stable to modestly upward trending prices.”

More in Great Britain, British Final GDP: The final version of Britain’s GDP is expected to confirm the  improved second release  and show a growth rate of 0.3% in the first quarter. Only an upwards revision of the weak growth rate will boost the Pound. The next quarters will probably be worse in Britain, with budget cuts expected to dampen the recovery.

Later in Great Britain, Current Account is expected to widen its  deficit to GBP -3.7 billion following the improvement of -1.7B in the previous quarter.

Read more about the Pound in the  GBP/USD forecast.

In Switzerland, KOF Economic Barometer is highly regarded and moves the Swissy. Last month saw a significant rise from 2.05 to 2.16 – a score which was better than expected. The Swiss economy is doing well, and so is their currency, especially against the Euro. A small rise to 2.17 is expected now.

In Australia, Total credit provided to the private sector by financial intermediaries rose by 0.2% over April 2010, following an increase of 0.5% over March a further rise of 0.4% is expected. The Private Sector Credit released by the Reserve Bank of Australia is an amount of money that the Australian private sector borrows. It shows if the private sector can afford large expenses, which can fuel economic growth. It is considered as an indicator of business conditions and the overall economic condition in Australia. Generally, a high reading is seen as positive (or Bullish) for the AUD, whereas a low reading is seen as negative.

For more on the Aussie, read the  AUD/USD forecast.

In Japan, Tankan Manufacturing Index: This fresh quarterly indicator always rocks the markets. 1,200 large manufacturers have shown less pessimism in Q1 as the core climbed from -24 to -14, as expected. The number for Q2 is expected to be slightly better, but still in the negative zone: -3 and Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index is also expecting an improvement from -14 to -8.

More in Japan, In April the average monthly total cash earnings per regular employee in Japan rose higher than expected reaching 1.5% a more modest increase of 0.9% is expected now.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

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