Forex Daily Outlook – March 12th 2009

The economic outlook for today is packed with data. Employment data in Australia, American Retails Sales and a new rate in Switzerland are the highlights for today. Let’s see what on the agenda, and there’s quite a bit.

The day opens with strong figures from down under: Australian Employment Change is expected to fall by 20.6K after last month’s small rise. Also the Unemployment Rate will be published at the same time. It’s expected to rise from 4.8% to 5%. These figures could send AUD/USD out of the narrow channel.

In Europe, traders will read the  ECB Monthly Bulletin, expected to detail about the continent’s economy. More releases in Europe include French CPI and  Final Non-Farm Payrolls (-0.6%), PPI and the German  Industrial Production, expected to fall by 3.3%, somewhat better than last month’s -4.6%. Also watch out for a speech from Jean-Claude Trichet.

In Britain,  Consumer Inflation Expectations will be of interest, as well as the  CB Leading Index. After dropping at the beginning of the week, the Pound’s behavior might get another blow from this.

American Core Retail Sales are expected to marginally drop by 0.1%. The non-Core Retail Sales are expected to fall by 0.5%. Due to bad economic figures from the US, worse numbers than these won’t be a big surprise. Americans are changing their spending habits, so sales could drop much more.

Weekly Unemployment Claims will also be published in the US, expected to stay stable, at 642K. This figure rises slowly. Later in the US: monthly  Business Inventories are expected to drop by 1.2%.

In Switzerland, it’s time for a new Libor Rate. The SNB is expected to drop the rate by 0.25% to 0.25%. USD/CHF is trading at a narrow range for a few months now, but the new rate probably won’t move the markets. Traders of the Swissy will listen to the  SNB Monetary Policy Assessment that will be released with the rate decision.

Also Canada stays on the board today, with a speech by  BOC Deputy Governor David Longworth about the financial system during the crisis.

And closing the day, more important figures from New Zealand: Retails Sales and Core Retail Sales will be published. Together with a new rate, the kiwi continues to get attention.

That’s it for Thursday. Quite a full day!