Forex Daily Outlook – March 12th 2010

Two American figures will be in the limelight todya: retail sales and consumer sentiment. In addition, we have employment figures from Canada and other events. Let’s see what’s up for today.

Up to now, this week saw tight trading, especially in the major pairs. Only the Aussie stood out with a break, enjoying good employment figures among other reasons to rise. OK, let’s start the review:

German wholesales prices are released in the morning. They’re expected to rise by 0.6%, half of last month’s scale. Later in Europe, Industrial Production is expected to rise by 0.8% after falling last month.

Apart from indicators, two speeches are due in Europe: Bundesbank president Axel Weber will speak in Bonn and ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet will speak in Stanford near the end of the day.

EUR/USD is rising within the range. For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs’ latest analysis.

In Britain, we also have a speech: MPC member Spencer Dale can shake the Pound when he makes a public appearance. For the Pound’s levels, read the GBP/USD forecast.

The Canadian dollar will have a chance to break below 1.02 when the employment figures are released. Canada’s Employment Change is predicted to rise moderately by 17,500 jobs. The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 8.3%.

These important figures come after a tight week, in which USD/CAD traded lower, but couldn’t break below 1.02. For more, read the USD/CAD forecast.

In the US, Retail Sales are expected to drop by 0.1% after a nice rise of 0.5% last month. Core retail sales, no less important, are expected to rise by 0.1%. This important figure will shake the markets, but there’s another one released soon afterwards.

Consumer sentiment is expected to edge up from 73.6 to 74. This is the initial release by the University of Michigan. This figure is released near the close of the markets, so it will move them strongly.

Also in the US: Business Inventories are expected to rise by 0.2% after dropping by the same scale last month. Treasury secretary Timothy Geithner will speak at a conference in Washington, and can also shake the dollar.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

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