Forex Daily Outlook – March 19th 2009

The Federal Reserve provided all the price action in the world with yesterday’s big announcement, and sent the dollar down, after the beatings it took earlier this week.. Today, the market might still feel aftershocks from yesterday, and might feel something from today’s economic calendar, with the US Unemployment Claims at the center. Here’s what’s up for today.

In Australia, Housing Starts have fallen by 9.9%! Expectations were for a much better figure, a rise of 1%. Also  New Motor Vehicle Sales fell in the land down under.

In Switzerland, Trade Balance still shows a surplus, but rather weak – only 0.73B, compared to 2B last time, and expectations of 1B this time. Later,  ZEW Economic Expectations are published there, and will also affect the Swissy.

In Britain, that sees a surge in unemployment,  Public Sector Net Borrowing will be in the limelight, expected to rise to 8 billion. Later in Britain,  CBI Industrial Order Expectations is expected to stay low and stable, at -55 points. EUR/GBP should continue rising.

In Canada,  CPI is expected to rise by 0.3% and Core CPI by 0.2%. Due the the bad conditions in Canada, a fall in prices couldn’t be ruled out. Also in Canada,  Foreign Securities Purchases are important, and are predicted to fall by 2 billion.

It’s time for the weekly Unemployment Claims, expected to stay around 650K in America. It’ll be interesting to see how the greenback reacts to this figure, after yesterday’s dollar beating.

Also in America,  Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is expected to decline, but “only” by 39.1 points, compared to -41.3 last month. In addition,  CB Leading Index is predicted to drop by 0.6%.

In verbal indicators, note today’s speeches by Britain’s  Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling,  Federal Reserve Governor Daniel Tarullo and  SNB Governing Board Member Thomas Jordan. They may all affect their respective currencies.

I’ll cover later the moves in AUD/USD. In the meantime, have a great day!