Forex Daily Outlook – March 2nd 2009


The EU Crisis Summit didn’t provide big headlines, but Monday has a lot of important economic figures. The major ones are the British Manufacturing PMI, Canadian GDP and the American ISM Manufacturing PMI. Yes, PMI is everywhere…

In PM (Purchasing Manager’s Index), a level under 50 indicates contraction. The expectations everywhere are in the 30s. Let’s see what’s on the menu.

The day starts with Japanese Average Cash Earnings, expected to deepen its fall, this time by 1.2%.

Australian Commodity Prices are also expected to dive, and impact the country’s commodity based, though resilient economy.

In the morning, at 8:30 GMT, the SVME PMI is expected to stay low, at 34.8 By the way, SVME stands for  Swiss Schweizerischer Verband für  Materialwirtschaft und Einkauf. 

Then, half an hour later, it’s Europe’s turn for PMI, and here, the Final Manufacturing PMI is expected to stay stable and slow at 33.6.

And Britain completes the old continent’s PMI data, with the the Manufacturing PMI, also expected to deepen to 34.9 from 35.8.

At 13:30 GMT, Canada will supply a major indicator: GDP. Canada will probably show more contraction, with a fall of 0.7% in GDP.

At the same time, some American data will serve as a warm up for the main event later on: Core PCE Price Index, Personal Spending and Personal Income will all be around 0% change.

In Europe, CPI Flash Estimate is released, and is expected to stand at 1%. But, I think that in these days, Inflation is irrelevant in Forex trading.

And at 15:00, the main figure for the day, ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to fall to 34, from the previous recording of 35.6.

When the waters are calm again, there are two speeches: one by Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker in the US, and another in the Alps, by SNB Governing Board Chairman Jean-Pierre Roth.

Reminder: this day, despite all the data, is just a warm up for the exciting week in forex. Check the Forex Weekly Outlook to see what’s next.

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About Author

Yohay Elam – Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I’ve accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I’ve earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I’ve worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.

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