Forex Daily Outlook – March 31st 2009

There are lots of economic indicators today, from all over the globe. The main events are the European  CPI Flash Estimate, Canadian GDP and the American  CB Consumer Confidence . The leaks from the G20 summit will continue to move the dollar also today.

British  GfK Consumer Confidence was a positive surprise despite being negative: it printed -30 instead of -35. Later in Britain:  Index of Services.

In Japan,  Household Spending fell by only 3.5%, somewhat better than expected. On the other hand,  Unemployment Rate disappointed with a rise to 4.4%, worse than expected (4.3%). Japanese  Average Cash Earnings also disappointed with a fall of 2.7%, almost double the early expectations.  This doesn’t Japanese trouble:  Housing Starts fell by 24.9% (!).

In New Zealand,  NBNZ Business Confidence recorded -39.3, better than last month. In its neighbor, Australia,  Private Sector Credit was unchanged, falling from early expectations of a 0.5% rise.

In Switzerland,  UBS Consumption Indicator printed 0.89. The previous figure was revised downwards to 0.92.

German  Unemployment Change is expected to stand at 53K, showing deepening unemployment towards the general elections in Germany this year. Also in Europe:  CPI Flash Estimate is expected to rise by 0.7% (annually adjusted). Will inflation raise its head in Europe?

Moving to North America, Canadian  GDP is expected to to show further contraction, and to fall by 0.6%. Also in Canada,  RMPI and  IPPI are expected to rise slightly.

In the US,  S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI (Standard & Poor’s, Case-Shiller House Price Index )    is expected to drop by 18.5% (annually adjusted). Chicago PMI is expected to stay low, at 34.3, very close to the previous read.

The main economic figure from the US today is the  CB Consumer Confidence which is predicted to lift its head and rise to 27.8, from the deep lows of 25. Do consumers begin to lift their head?

Happy Forex Trading!