Forex Daily Outlook – May 13th 2009

American Retail Sales will draw attention today, as well as British unemployment figures. And there’s more. Let’s see what’s on the menu:

Japan’s  BOJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa will speak during the day. We haven’t heard from him lately. Does he see hope?

Britian’s  Claimant Count Change is the best indicator for unemployment in the UK. It’s expected to rise from 73.7K to 81.5K and will draw attention. Also the late  Unemployment Rate figure will be closely watched. British unemployment is predicted to rise to 6.9%. Also note the  Average Earnings Index which is expected to drop by 1%.

These figures will be followed by a speech by  BOE Governor Mervyn King. He’ll focus on the  BOE Inflation Report. Britain still doesn’t suffer from deflation.

In Europe,  Industrial Production  is expected to drop once again, this time by 0.9%, after falling by 2.3% last month. And contrary to Britain, the continent does suffer from deflation: French CPI is predicted to rise by only 0.2%.

American Retail Sales and Core  Retail Sales are published at 12:30 GMT. They aren’t expected to change. If they’ll surprise and rise, it’ll be another sign of recovery, in an area that hasn’t showed improvement until now. Retail Sales have been dropping. This might set the direction of the US dollar.

Also in the US:  Import Prices are expected to rise (oil for example), and  Business Inventories are expected to fall. Speaking of oil,  Crude Oil Inventories are still expected to rise.

There are some speeches today as well: FOMC members  Elizabeth Duke and  Dennis Lockhart will both speak at a conference in Atlanta. Also in Europe, ECB member and  Deutsche Bundesbank President Axel Weber will speak in London, and might move the EUR/USD.

That’s it. Happy forex trading!