Forex Daily Outlook – May 21st 2009

Thursday is busy as usual, despite some holidays in Europe: British Retail Sales, European PMI, and American Unemployment Claims will stand out today. And there’s more…

Swiss, German and French banks are on holiday today, so trading might be slightly thinner than usual.

Australia’s MI Inflation Expectations might rise on improving economic conditions. Also in Australia, the RBA Monthly Bulletin is notable.

In Europe, it’s PMI day! Flash Manufacturing PMI and Flash Services PMI will be released in France, then Germany and then for the whole of Europe. All this will happen between 7:00 to 8:00 GMT. All the figures are expected to show modest gains, but none of them are expected to pass the crucial 50 mark. Where will EUR/USD go?

British Retail Sales are expected to rise by 0.5%, showing improvement. This could send the Pound higher, being an important figure. See my special coverage for the Pound this week.

Also in Britain, Prelim Business Investment is expected to fall by 4%, Public Sector Net Borrowing is predicted to shrink to 7.4 billion and Prelim M4 Money Supply to rise by 0.5%. Late at night, British MPC member Charles Bean will speak.

In Canada, Prelim M4 Money Supply is predicted to squeeze to 5.12 billion and Wholesale Sales are predicted to fall by 0.8%. Though these aren’t the most important figures in Canada, they could still move the loonie. Read more about this important week for the USD/CAD.

In the US, Unemployment Claims got a blow last week (probably from Chrysler), and they aren’t expected to get better. Stability comes before recovery…

Also in the US, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is predicted to stand at -19.2. CB Leading Index is expected to rise by 0.7%.

That’s it. Happy forex trading!