Forex Daily Outlook – May 28th 2009
Daily Look

Forex Daily Outlook – May 28th 2009

Take a deep breath. There are lots of figures today all over the globe.  CBI Realized Sales in Britain, American  Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales stand out. And just before the day ends, there are lots of important figures in Japan. Ready? Let’s dive…

Global Events

North Korea continues to play dangerous games with the world: a third test has been conducted. Fears of war in the far east ignite risk aversion and help the US dollar.

Two oil-related events are due today: weekly  Crude Oil Inventories are expected to stay unchanged. Bigger news will come from the OPEC meeting held in Vienna. A surprise could impact forex trading as well.

Economic Calendar

Australia’s  CB Leading Index starts the day. It’s followed by a speech by  RBA Deputy Governor Ric Battellino. Later in Australia,  Private Capital Expenditure  is expected to drop by 5.5% after rising by 6% last quarter.  Will the Aussie continue rising?

In New Zealand, the  Annual Budget Release is will probably shock the kiwi. Remember what Alistair Darling did to the Pound?

Swiss Trade Balance is expected to show a shrinking surplus, from 150 million to 110 million.

In Europe,  German Unemployment Change is a key figure for the whole continent. Watch the EUR/USD move. Also in Europe, Consumer Confidence is predicted to stay stable.

British CBI Realized Sales are a major figure for the Pound. They’re expected to turn negative, to -10.

British  GfK Consumer Confidence is also due, late in the day. Expectations are for an easing – from -27 to -25.  Read my special coverage for the British Pound:  Pound at New Ground – What’s Next?

US Figures

American Core  Durable Goods Orders are predicted to drop by 0.4%, less than last month’s fall. The non-Core figure is expected to rise by 0.1%.

At the same time,  Unemployment Claims are published, and no news is expected – stability at around 630K is the consensus. The American job market has seen better days. For more about the greenback’s week, check out my post:  :  Contraction or Retraction?

An hour and a half later, New Home Sales are due – they’re expected to rise nicely to 363K, from 356K last month.

Near the end of the day,  Building Consents will be published in New Zealand. If they continue falling, NZD/USD will be hurt.

Japanese influx of figures

Just before midnight GMT, there are lots of figures published in Japan:  Household Spending is predicted to fall by 0.7%,  Tokyo Core CPI is expected to show that prices went down, and so will the National Core CPI.

Japanese Unemployment Rate, despite being a late figure, will also have significant impact on USD/JPY. It’s expected to round upwards to 5%.

Last but not least, Japanese  Prelim Industrial Production is expected to give some hope, rising by 3.3%. This might justify the cautious optimism that was heard lately from the BOJ.

That’s it. Happy forex trading!

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.