Forex Daily Outlook – May 7th 2009
Daily Look

Forex Daily Outlook – May 7th 2009

Big today today in forex trading: Britain and Europe will make rate decisions, US Unemployment Claims could surprise, and  Bank Stress Test Info will also draw attention. Let’s dive into the main events of the day…

I apologize before my regular readers – I didn’t publish the forex daily outlook yesterday.

Australian employment figures were better than expected:  Employment Change rose by 27.3K. The  Unemployment Rate fell (!) from 5.7% to 5.4%. Expectations were for the situation to worsen – a rise to 5.9%.

In Europe, German Factory Orders are expected to fall, this time by a modest 0.8%. Swiss CPI is expected to be on the rise again, but only a little bit: 0.6%.

British Official Bank Rate is expected to stay at the historic low of 0.5%. Since rates are expected to change, all eyes will be on the  MPC Rate Statement, which might shed some light on the Quantitative Easing plans of the BoE.

European  Minimum Bid Rate is expected to be cut from 1.25% to 1%. Trichet cannot avoid cutting the rates this time. Last time, he cut rates only to 1.25%, and created a short-lived rally in the EUR/USD. The accompanying  ECB Press Conference will also be closely watched. What will Jean-Claude Trichet hint about the future?

While Trichet speaks, American  Unemployment Claims will be released. They’re predicted to stand at 639K. Since we’ve seen some positive news from the US lately, could it be better?  ADP Non-Farm Employment Change was very good – falling only by 491K jobs, much much better than expected. Also last month’s figure was revised. This adds another reason why Non-Farm Payrolls will be better this time.

Also in the US,  Prelim Nonfarm Productivity and  Prelim Unit Labor Costs for the first quarter will be released.

Later in the US, Ben Bernanke will speak. This might shake tensed markets before tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payrolls. Also  Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans will talk.

Near the end of the day, at 21:00 GMT, the final results of the  Bank Stress Test Info will be published. This release, at an unusual hour will move the US dollar.

And just before midnight GMT,  Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes will be published in Japan.

Happy Forex Trading!

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.