Forex Daily Outlook – May 8th 2009

The monthly circus of Non-Farm Payrolls is with us today: expectations got better (-590K), and I believe that it’ll be even better than this. There are a few other important economic figures. Let’s dive in:

Australian  RBA Monetary Policy Statement will start the day. After the impressing employment data in Australia, the decision to leave interest rates intact can be easily explained….

Swiss Unemployment Rate is expected to rise from 3.3% to 3.4%. In Europe,  German Trade Balance is predicted to show a squeezing surplus.  German Industrial Production is also on the squeeze, expected to fall by 1.3%, after falling 2.9% last time.

In Britain, PPI Input is predicted to rise by 0.7%, less than last time. Britain currently doesn’t suffer from deflation.

Canadian  Employment Change is predicted to show that 48.5K jobs were lost. Also Unemployment Rate will support these bad news, rising from 8% to 8.3%. Another interesting figure in Canada is Housing Starts: they are expected to decline to 140K.

Non-Farm Payrolls are expected to fall by 590K. The consensus about  Non-Farm Employment Change has improved during the week: earlier expectations stood on a fall of 615K. Last time they, American jobs fell by 663K.  

Here are 8 reasons why Non-Farm Payrolls should be better.

US Unemployment Rate is expected to rise from 8.5% to 8.9%. If NFP is better than expected, this figure may also surprise.

Also in the US,  Average Hourly Earnings are expected to rise by 0.2%.  Wholesale Inventories are predicted to fall by 1.1%.

In the evening, note that two FOMC member will speak:  Jeffrey Lacker and  Charles Evans.

Happy Forex Trading!