Forex Daily Outlook – November 11th 2009

It’s Remembrance Day in many countries in the Western hemisphere, so forex trading will be rather light today. In Britain, there’s no holiday, and there are major employment events. Let’s see what’s on the menu today:

Both the US and Canada are on holiday, but this doesn’t mean that USD/CAD won’t shake, after breaking the support line yesterday.

An influx of data arrives from China. The most important figure is Industrial Production. The growth rate is expected to rise from 13.9% to 15.3%, showing that the Asian giant is in full strength. Also note Trade Balance, which is expected to show a higher surplus.

Good figures from China are good for the Aussie. For more on the Australian dollar, read the weekly AUD/USD forecast.

New: An outlook video from my partners:

Big day in Britain

Britain’s Claimant Count Change is the earliest and most important employment figure. The rise in unemployed people softened last month, helping the Pound. It’s expected to remain stable at around 20.2K. And there’s more in the UK…

At the same time, 9:30 GMT, the Unemployment Rate is released. This related to the previous month – September. Despite the late release, this figure, which surprised twice, has a great influence on cable as well. It’s expected to edge up from 7.9% to 8%.

Later in Britain, the Bank of England will release the quarterly BOE Inflation Report. It’s expected to show that Britain is on the verge of deflation, with slowing price rises. Mervyn King, governor of the BoE, will hold a press conference immediately after the release of the report. He will state policy related to inflation (or deflation), something that will rock the Pound.

For more on the British Pound, check out the weekly GBP/USD forecast.

In Europe, despite the holiday, a speech from Axel Weber, head of the German Budesbank is expected. He’s one of the strongest people at the European Central Bank.

For more on the Euro, I suggest reading Casey Stubbs’ recent EUR/USD technical analysis and my EUR/USD weekly forecast.

Near the end of the day, New Zealand will release a major figure: retail sales. They’re expected to rise by 0.5%, about half of last month’s rise. Core retail sales are predicted to rise by 0.4%, much less than 1.2% that was recorded last month.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!