Forex Daily Outlook – November 13th 2009

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The Euro’s week is coming to a climax with GDP releases from Germany and then from the whole continent. Other highlights of today, Friday 13th, are the releases of trade balance in the US and Canada. Let’s see what’s up for today:

The dollar made gains yesterday and kept them. Even the Aussie, which enjoyed good employment figures gave in to the dollar. AUD/USD took a break as well.

German Prelim GDP is expected to rise by 0.8% in the third quarter, following the 0.3% rise in Q2. Germany is leading the European recovery, and is expected to continue doing so. The early recovery was a surprise last time. Published at 7:00 GMT.

Also Europe’s second largest economy, France, is expected to show another quarter of growth, by 0.6% this time. Italy, which is still in recession according to Q2 figures (0.8% contraction) is expected to post 0.8% growth in the third quarter.

The big question is about the continent as a whole: Did Europe get out of recession?

At 10:00 GMT, we’ll get an answer, with the publication of the European Flash GDP. It’s expected to show growth of 0.6% in Q3, after contraction of 0.2% in Q2.

Apart from these important figures, also note the French Prelim Non-Farm Payrolls which are predicted to drop by 0.2% this quarter, less than the last one. Also another speech by Bundesbank president Axel Weber is due later.

EUR/USD has fallen significantly in recent trading, and now trades at 1.4864. Casey Stubbs covers this drop.

In Switzerland, PPI is expected to rise by 0.1%, very stable indeed.

The US and Canada will both release their trade balance at the same time, 13:30 GMT. The Canadian deficit is expected to squeeze down to 1.6 billion, while the American one is expected to expand to 31 billion. USD/CAD, that broke below the support line,  will shake around the release.

For more on the loonie, check out the USD/CAD Forecast.

In the US, Import Prices are predicted to rise by 1.1%, following a small rise last time. The University of Michigan publishes it’s highly regarded Consumer Sentiment report near the end of the day. It’s predicted to advance from 70.6 to 71.1 points, showing that Americans remain optimistic.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

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Yohay Elam – Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I’ve accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I’ve earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I’ve worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.

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