After some dollar weakness but continuing range trading, at least for EUR/USD, an extremely busy day expects traders: revised GDP in the US, and Germany are only a few of the upcoming events in this long day. Here’s the (long) daily outlook:
Japan’s BOJ Monthly Report starts the day, with an insight into the economy. On the other side of the day, Japanese Trade Balance surplus is predicted to rise significantly.
In Switzerland, the UBS Consumption Indicator is predicted to rise from last month’s 0.63 points. Swiss Employment Level is predicted to edge up to 3.96 million. Later in the day, SNB Chairman Jean-Pierre Roth will speak. Will he talk about intervention in the forex markets?
In Europe, German Final GDP is predicted to confirm the 0.7% growth in Q3. A better result will boost the Euro. German Ifo Business Climate is expected to rise to 92.6 showing growing confidence. This is an important release for the Euro.
In France, Consumer Spending is expected to rise by 0.5%, after a nice jump last time. In Belgium, the NBB Business Climate is predicted to rise, but remain negative, at -11.3.
Another notable indicator in Europe is Industrial New Orders, which are predicted to rise by 0.7%, a smaller rise than last month. For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast.
In Britain, BBA Mortgage Approvals are expected to rise up to 44K, another peak. At the same time, Prelim Business Investment for Q3 is predicted to drop by 3.5%, smaller than last quarter’s whopping 10.2% drop that hurt the Pound.
More action is due at the Inflation Report Hearings that will begin in the British parliament. Mervyn King will give a report on the economy, and will later speak in one of the commitees. High volatility is expected.
For more on the British Pound, read the GBP/USD forecast.
In the US, third quarter GDP is predicted to be revised to the downside. The 3.5% growth in Q3, which was doubted by many economists, is predicted to be revised to 2.9% in the second release, also known as Prelim GDP. The markets will shake at this time, 13:30 GMT.
And there’s more from the US: After excellent Existing Home Sales yesterday, house prices are in the limelight today: S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI is expected to show an annualized fall of 9.1%, better than last month. Also note the official HPI, which is predicted to rise by 0.2%.
Later, the CB Consumer Confidence is expected to remain stable this time. Last month, it caused panic when it fell unexpectedly.
The final major event in America is at 19:00 GMT, when the FOMC Meeting Minutes are released. Last month’s decision was quite confusing, yet traders focused on the “extended period of low interest rates”, something that hurt the dollar.
Near the end of the day, RBA Deputy Governor Ric Battellino will make a public appearance, and might impact the Aussie. For more on the Australian dollar, read the AUD/USD forecast.
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That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!
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