Search ForexCrunch

American Unemployment Claims, US Preliminary Nonfarm Productivity, Preliminary Unit Labor Costs and rate decisions  in the Euro-Zone and Britain are today’s market movers. Here is an outlook on the major events ahead.

In the US, American Unemployment Claims dropped more than than expected  to 434K from 455K in the week before. This encouraging decrease in this major weekly indicator gave a positive shift in the market last week. A drop below 430K will signal a real positive transition in the Job market though claims have wavered around 450,000 for most of this year with several drops below this figure but they have always rebounded in subsequent weeks. A small rise to 437K is expected to continue the optimistic trend strengthening the USD.

In the US, American Unemployment Claims dropped more than than expected  to 434K from 455K in the week before. This encouraging decrease in this major weekly indicator gave a positive shift in the market last week. A drop below 430K will signal a real positive transition in the Job market though claims have wavered around 450,000 for most of this year with several drops below this figure but they have always rebounded in subsequent weeks. A small rise to 437K is expected to continue the optimistic trend strengthening the USD.

More in the US, Prelim Nonfarm Productivity  released quarterly measuring the annualized change in labor efficiency when producing goods and services, excluding the farming industry, dropped 0.9% in the second quarter indicating less production from employees. This time, a rise of 0.9% is expected while the Prelim Unit Labor Costs rose by 0.2% in August forecasted another rise of 0.8%.

In Canada, Ivey Purchasing Managers Index a leading indicator of economic health  climbed from the prior reading of 65.9 to reach a better than the expected score of 70.3 in September. A small drop to 65.8 is expected now although it is still well above the 50 point line.

For more on USD/CAD, read the  Canadian dollar forecast.

In Europe, Euro-Zone Rate Decision – ECB decided to keep rates unchanged at 1.00% and in likely to do so again to prevent endangering the EUR/USD and upsetting economy.

In Great Britain, Official Bank Rate –  The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee voted to maintain rates into in October. It is unlikely that the BOE will declare a rate hike thus leaving the rate at 0.50%.

Later in Great Britain, Halifax HPI   House prices in September fell by a record 3.6 per cent month-on-month according to a closely watched index, although it tends to be a volatile measure. September’s fall should be seen against a smoother backdrop of quarterly movements. Third quarter  house prices, on the Halifax measure, were 0.9 per cent lower than in the second quarter of 2010. Low transaction volumes makes if difficult to obtain a clear reading on the current state of the housing market. A 0.4% rise is expected now

Finally in Britain, Asset Purchase Facility measuring the total value of money the BOE will create and use to purchase assets in the open market remained unchanged since November 2009 amounting to 200B. The same figure is likely to remain.

Read more about the Pound in the  GBP/USD forecast.

In Switzerland, CPI or Inflation rate  remained flat in the previous two months expecting 0.7% rise this month. A renewed risk of deflation, amid the strong Swiss franc and the expectations of a slowdown in the economy is a key concern for the Swiss Franc.

In Australia, Retail Sales the earliest look at vital consumer spending data rose by a disappointing 0.3% last month contrary to forecasts of 0.5% rise.   The same rate of 5.0% is predicted now.

More in Australia, Trade Balance surplus rose to 3.25B in August indicating that more goods and services were exported than imported. A small decrease to 2.13B is forecasted now.

For more on the Aussie, read the  AUD/USD forecast.

In Japan, BOJ Gov Shirakawa Speaks at the Kyodo Seminar, in Tokyo –  Bank of Japan Gov. Masaaki Shirakawa has called on the administration to promote structural reforms to ensure an economic recovery, after the central bank played its part by significantly easing monetary conditions. His speech may reveal clues on expected reforms in the market.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.