Forex Daily Outlook – November 6th 2009

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The busy week comes to an end with the big announcement of the Non-Farm Payrolls. The job market is lagging behind other indicators. Is this going to change? There are other important events as well. Let’s review them:

The day begins with the RBA Monetary Policy Statement from Australia. After the second rate hike this week, we might see a pause in this policy. Hints are possible in this statement. Later in Australia, Deputy Governor Ric Battellino will make a public appearance.

The AUD/USD went down under the support line of 0.8950 at the beginning of the week but recovered quickly.

In Switzerland, Unemployment Rate is expected to edge up from 4.1% to 4.2%. USD/CHF isn’t that far from parity once again.

In Europe, France will release its Trade Balance, which is expected to show a smaller deficit. Later, German Factory Orders are expected to continue marching forward, this time by 1%. For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD Forecast.

For an excellent technical analysis, read Casey Stubbs’ recent EUR/USD analysis.

In Britain, PPI Input is predicted to turn positive and rise by 1.6% after falling last time. Britain’s prices are currently not a problem. A higher rise will help the Pound make some more gains, after yesterday’s Quantitative Easing was easier than expected. Britain’s Asset Purchase Facility was raised by only 25 billion, below expectations, showing that the economy isn’t htat bad, thus helping the Pound.

In Canada, employment figures are also due. Employment Change is expected to rise by 10K, following last month’s big surprise. The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain at 8.4%, where it fell to surprisingly last month. Another positive surprise will help the Canadian dollar.

Non-Farm Payrolls are expected to drop by 173K. This key event, at 13:30 will cause the markets to move all day. The accompanying figure, the Unemployment Rate is predicted to rise to 9.9%. A rise to 10%. the big psychological barrier, will cause a big headache for the markets. In such a case, fear will take over once again.

In addition to the key NFP event, there are a few more indicators: Average Hourly Earnings are expected to rise by 0.1%, exactly like last month. Wholesale Inventories are predicted to fall by 0.9% and Consumer Credit is expected to dive by 10 billion dollars.

Also note speeches by FOMC members Charles Evans and Elizabeth Duke.

That’s it for today.

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About Author

Yohay Elam – Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I’ve accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I’ve earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I’ve worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.

1 Comment

  1. Good day, could you pls be specific in your forecast so that we can know the direction of any news and event that are about to happen, so that we can make a decision before time. Thanks for the wonderful job so far.